Analysis: Scale of protests and violence in Iran echoes chaos around its 1979 Islamic Revolution

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — In a matter of days, nationwide protests challenging Iran's theocracy exploded into a crackdown and bloodshed that blew past reported casualty figures of decades of past demonstrations in the country.

This new level of mayhem summons the chaotic days surrounding the birth of the Islamic Republic in 1979. That poses perhaps the greatest risk to Iran's theocracy in the time since that revolution: It now faces a populace increasingly willing to defy a government long willing to use violence to suppress dissent.

In the run-up to revolution in 1978, Iran witnessed running street battles between forces loyal to the U.S.-backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and demonstrators. Also part of that movement: attacks that targeted cinemas, nightclubs, U.S. interests, Iranian officials and minorities. Each fresh mourning for slain protesters expanded into a cycle of demonstrations. That ultimately ballooned to millions on the streets and pushed the monarch, fatally ill with cancer, to flee.

Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in exile in France, returned to Iran and soon seized all levers of power under his vision of “Velayat-e Faqih,” or the “Guardianship of the Jurist.” Many fully didn't grasp what would come next.

The execution of thousands of former government and military officials, writers, activists and others followed. So did a bloody eight-year war launched by Iraq. The imposition of the mandatory hijab, or headscarf, for women took effect. Soon came decades of tension with the United States — particularly after the 1979 seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and the 444-day hostage crisis that helped impact the outcome of an American presidential election.

Iran's theocracy remembers those chaotic days after the revolution. And it's well aware of their potency today.

In recent days, state television has aired archival footage of the early 1980s unrest. That was when fighters allied to militants called the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq, or MEK, broke with Khomeini and were blamed for a series of major bombings and killings.

Authorities also have recycled another phrase from the era when talking about those detained after the current protests, which began Dec. 28. Iran's attorney general and others call those being held “mohareb" — “enemies of God.”

That charge carries the death penalty. It had been used along with others to carry out mass executions in 1988 that reportedly killed at least 5,000 people. Pro-government demonstrators have shouted: “Marg bar monafegh!” or “Death to the Hypocrites!” That's another phrase from the 1980s long applied to the MEK.

These references to the past signal something noteworthy: the concern Iran's government has for what's happening — and its efforts to try to change its description of the protests, which began with traders angry over the rial falling to 1.4 million to $1. By comparison, the rial traded around 70 to $1 when the 1979 revolution took place.

Initially, Iran's reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, seemed willing to negotiate with demonstrators. The government drastically changed a subsidized currency exchange system that had been plagued by allegations of corruption. And it offered the heads of households the equivalent of $7 a month to cover skyrocketing food prices.

But as soon as mass demonstrations swelled last week, Iran's theocracy reverted to a familiar playbook. It cut off access to the internet. It severed telephone lines abroad. Security forces engaged in what appears to be a bloody crackdown using live fire and other weapons to suppress the demonstrations, based on online videos and testimonies collected by activists.

It remains unclear why exactly the bloodshed this time was so much greater than previous rounds of unrest, such as the 2022 Mahsa Amini demonstrations or the 2009 “Green Movement” protests.

The Associated Press' ability to independently assess the scope of the demonstrations and the violence that followed has been limited along with much of the rest of the world's by Iran's longtime restrictions on journalists and government communication blockages.

But one factor may be that the protests touched on economic issues, something that cuts across the political, ethnic and religious divisions among Iran's 85 million people. Hard-liners may still be angry over the 12-day war, in which nuclear sites, missile arsenals and top military officials were targeted.

Another possible reason: the size and scope of the protests themselves — particularly given that fact that authorities repeatedly warned the gatherings were illegal and signaled willingness to use force.

Before the shah fell, for example, millions of protesters made it to the streets across the country during the holy Shiite mourning commemoration of Ashoura in December 1978. The monarch didn't restrict the processions, which included demonstrators screaming: “Death to the shah!” That day ended without security forces shooting into the marches. The shah returned tanks and troops to the streets afterward, but it shook his resolve.

This time around, Iran's government hasn't acknowledged the size of the demonstrations. But it did organize its own pro-government rally Monday that brought tens of thousands into the street.

The theocracy also increased rhetoric against anti-government protesters, calling them “terrorists” and alleging Israel and the United States organized them, without offering evidence. The shah also famously accused “Islamic Marxists," Communists and others for his woes — once going as far as saying: "If you lift up Khomeini’s beard, you will find 'Made in England' written under his chin.”

There are, of course, noteworthy differences between then and now. At the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump has signaled willingness to potentially use force to intervene. Western nations have condemned Iran, which remains choked by sanctions over its nuclear program and other issues.

But if the years around 1979 offer a cue for January's demonstrations, they portend more troubles ahead for Iran — even if its theocracy believes it has put down the demonstrations successfully before they reach a point of no return.

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EDITOR’S NOTE — Jon Gambrell, news director for the Gulf and Iran for The Associated Press, has reported from each of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Iran and other locations across the Mideast and the wider world since joining AP in 2006.