National Retail Federation : holiday sales to increase 3.7% to 4.2% despite concerns over inflation

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NEW YORK (AP) — American shoppers are expected to spend more during the holiday shopping season this year, compared with a year ago, despite uncertainly over tariffs and the overall economy.

The 2025 forecast from the National Retail Federation on Thursday estimates that shoppers will make $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion worth of purchases in November and December, an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% over the same two-month period a year ago.

However, holiday spending was up 4.3% during last year's holiday period compared with 2023.

The trade group makes its calculations based on government figures. The numbers exclude sales at automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants.

The forecast this year, however, arrives during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history. There has been no data released on the jobs market or retail sales since the shutdown began 37 days ago.