The AP Top 25 college football rankings are almost here. Will Georgia and USF hold onto spots?
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11:44 AM on Sunday, September 14
By MAURA CAREY
Week 4 of the AP Top 25 college football poll is coming up fast.
Stakes heightened and playoff paths sharpened as the dust settled Saturday, with the poll’s top seven teams all seeing wins. But others in the rankings — including No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 11 South Carolina and No. 12 Clemson — weren’t so lucky.
No. 5 Miami crushed No. 18 South Florida’s dream run, but will it cost the Bulls their poll spot? Will No. 6 Georgia fall after needing overtime to win on the road at No. 15 Tennessee?
Follow live updates from The Associated Press below for game recaps, poll predictions and ranking analyses all in one place.
Here's the latest:
Who is we?
I had Miami No. 9 on my preseason ballot. I have UM No. 4 this week. I have been high on the Canes for the past two years. I was at the Notre Dame win and wrote about Mario Cristobal’s commitment to restoring his alma mater to the glory days.
I’ll give you two stats that can help you determine the champ.
The preseason No. 1-ranked AP team has failed to win the national title in 19 of the last 21 years. So eliminate Texas.
Also, in 17 of the last 19 years, the national champ was ranked in the top 7 of the preseason poll. So that bodes well for Penn State, Ohio State, Georgia and Oregon. Clemson and Notre Dame were also in top seven, but they’re not looking so great right now.
I try to look at the “inside-the-box score,” if you will.
I just don’t look at final scores, because those can be very deceiving. An example, Illinois beat Duke 45-19 last week. Blowout right? Not really. Duke actually outgained Illinois, but lost five turnovers.
So for that game, I’ll give Illinois credit for the win, but it wasn’t a 26-point margin. It was closer to a toss-up.
I’ll also try to compare common opponents. Everyone does it differently, but just keep in mind, it’s a beauty pageant. It’s just someone’s opinion.
They could be right. Or wrong.
If you’re a Tom Petty fan, you know the song: Free Falling.
I don’t know how far Clemson will drop, but I believe it will be significant. Yes, they have a couple of close losses, but Clemson barely survived at home against Troy.
And Georgia Tech absolutely needs to be ranked among the top 20 teams.
South Florida’s first two games couldn’t have gone better, overthrowing preseason No. 25 Boise State in Week 1 and delivering an 18-16 upset over Florida the following week.
The Bulls’ hot streak ended on Saturday, when they lost 49-12 to Miami. South Florida’s immediate future in the Top 25 appears bleak, while Miami looked every bit a top 5 team.
The Hurricanes’ Florida tour continues over the next two weeks as they host the Gators on Saturday night and travel to Florida State on Oct. 4.
I valued Georgia’s win at Tennessee better than Miami’s home win against Notre Dame.
Tennessee may or may not be better than Notre Dame (we’ll find out eventually), but winning in that atmosphere for Georgia was more impressive to me.
Biggest surprise: Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt.
QB Diego Pavia talked a lot ... before the season, but the Commodores are backing it up. Florida State has also been impressive. That Alabama win will look better and better as the season continues. Can’t wait for Miami-FSU in three weeks.
Biggest disappointment: Clemson was a trendy national title pick by a lot of folks (not me), and now the Tigers will have to somehow win the ACC to get into the playoff.
Can you say Pop-Tarts Bowl?
Hear from a voter: Which teams did you move around this week?
Among changes on my AP ballot this week — besides ranking Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech — were dropping Penn State and Texas slightly.
Penn State has played arguably the weakest opening schedule. The Nittany Lions have won comfortably, but I’ve been more impressed by the wins from Ohio State, Georgia and LSU. Texas has looked average the last two weeks so, for now, the Longhorns are barely hanging in my Top 10.
Clemson, South Carolina and Notre Dame each suffered upsets on Saturday, putting each at risk of losing Top 25 status.
An unranked Georgia Tech team outplayed No. 12 Clemson and solidified the upset victory with a buzzer-beating 55-yard field goal.
Georgia Tech likely swayed voters with its compelling performance and the Tigers’ loss is sure to impact votes as well.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s home opener didn’t go as planned. The Irish took a gamble with a two-point attempt and fell short. Texas A&M answered with a charge downfield in the final minutes of the game, scoring the go-ahead touchdown to win 41-40.
South Carolina didn’t come close against Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks were outplayed in all aspects, especially after losing quarterback LaNorris Sellers in the second quarter with a concussion. The 31-7 loss puts South Carolina in serious danger of falling out of the Top 25.
Most preseason Heisman conversations focused on three quarterbacks: Arch Manning (Texas), Garrett Nussmeier (LSU) and Cade Klubnik (Clemson).
Three weeks into the season, those conversations sound quite different.
Preseason No. 4 Clemson is at serious risk of stumbling out of the Top 25 after losing to Georgia Tech on Saturday. Preseason No. 1 Texas underwhelmed in a 27-10 win over UTEP with an inconsistent passing game, while Nussmeier remains a favorite after leading LSU to a 3-0 start.
But John Mateer (Oklahoma) and Carson Beck (Miami) have replaced Klubnik and Manning in the top tier.
No organization has been ranking teams and naming a major college football national champion longer than The Associated Press, since 1936.
AP employees don’t vote themselves, but they do choose the voters. AP Top 25 voters comprise around 60 writers and broadcasters who cover college football for AP members and other select outlets. The goal is to have every state with a Football Bowl Subdivision school represented by at least one voter.
There is a 1-25 point system, with a team voted No. 1 receiving 25 points down to 1 point for a 25th-place vote. After that, it’s simple: The poll lists the teams with the most points from 1 to 25, and others receiving votes are also noted.
Voting is done online, and the tabulation is automated.
