Pro Picks: Seahawks will edge Patriots to win their second Super Bowl

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SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — Sam Darnold has been traded, discarded and labeled a bust.

Now, it’ll take an upset for him not to be called a Super Bowl champion.

Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks (16-3) are 4 1/2-point favorites on BetMGM Sportsbook against Drake Maye and the New England Patriots (17-3) on Sunday.

It’s a matchup that features two of the NFL’s most balanced teams who have taken different routes to get here.

The Seahawks earned a first-round bye and then dominated the San Francisco 49ers 41-6 to reach the NFC championship game. Behind a spectacular game from Darnold, they beat the Los Angeles Rams 31-27 to advance to their fourth Super Bowl. They’ve won one and would’ve had back-to-back championships if Russell Wilson didn’t throw a pick at the 1-yard line in the final minute of a 28-24 loss to New England 11 years ago.

The Patriots have relied on a dominant defense to reach this point because the NFL’s second-highest scoring offense has slumped in the playoffs. After averaging 28.8 points per game in the regular season, they’re down to 18 per game in the postseason and that includes a pick-6.

That’s the fewest points by any team to make the Super Bowl since the 1979 Rams averaged 15 in the playoffs.

But New England’s defense shut down Justin Herbert in a 16-3 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round. The Patriots intercepted C.J. Stroud four times and returned one for a score in a 28-16 victory over the Houston Texans. They held the Broncos to one touchdown in a 10-7 win in the AFC title game.

Seattle’s defense was stingier in the regular season, giving up a league-low 17.2 points per game. The Patriots were fourth best, allowing 18.8. The Seahawks were right behind New England in scoring offense, averaging 28.4 points.

In yardage, each team was top 10 in every category on both sides of the ball.

The Seahawks are 14-5 against the spread while the Patriots are 13-6-1.

New England is playing in its 12th Super Bowl and seeking its seventh victory, which would break a tie with the Pittsburgh Steelers for the most in NFL history.

The Patriots, who won six Super Bowls with Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in nine tries, haven’t been an underdog in this game since the first time they won one. The “Greatest Show on Turf” St. Louis Rams were double-digit favorites when Brady, in his second year, led New England to a 20-17 victory on Feb. 3, 2002.

Underdogs have covered the spread five straight years and have won three in a row, including the Philadelphia Eagles over the Kansas City Chiefs last year.

Overall, favorites are 36-23 straight up and 27-30-2 ATS in the Super Bowl.

Pro Picks sees a close one.

SEAHAWKS: 24-22

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Overall: Straight up: 193-90-1. Against spread: 149-127-8.

Regular season: Straight up: 184-87-1. Against spread: 143-121-8.

Playoffs: Straight up: 9-3. Against spread: 6-6.

Best Bet: Straight up: 15-6. Against spread: 9-11-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 14-7. Against spread: 15-6.

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Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl